The Climate Cycle That Moves Commodities

A monitor of how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reshuffles tropical rainfall and the harvests and fisheries that follow — and what it does to prices. Shows the live ENSO state via NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a red/blue timeline of every El Niño and La Niña since 1982, and for each commodity — wheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar, cocoa, salmon, palm oil — the average price move per past El Niño and La Niña event, computed from real history with a signal-strength badge. Empirically: La Niña tends to lift wheat, corn and soybeans (South American and Australian drought); El Niño tends to lift coffee, cocoa and palm oil (Southeast Asian and West African drought) and pressures the Peruvian anchovy fishery. ENSO is one driver among many; not investment advice.

This is an interactive map — enable JavaScript for the full visualization. Part of Muad'Dib Capital, the Atlas of the Physical Economy.

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EL NIÑO · LA NIÑA

The climate cycle that moves commodities

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reshuffles rainfall across the tropics — drought here, floods there — and the harvests, fisheries and energy demand that follow. Below: the live ENSO state (NOAA's ONI), and for 20+ commodities the average price move per past El Niño and La Niña event — split into all events vs ⚡ super (peak |ONI| ≥ 1.5) to see whether intensity matters. Measured from real history, so the data, not folklore, shows the link.

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El Niño (warm) NeutralLa Niña (cool)

Where it hits — regional impact

ENSO doesn't act everywhere the same: the same phase brings drought to one region and floods to another. Toggle a phase to see who gets hit.

Drier / drought Wetter / floods Warmer Cooler hover a region for its crop & production impact

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